Decision Making Essay

10199 Words Jun 3rd, 2014 41 Pages
JOURNAL OF MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, VOL 5,

39-57

(1996)

Multi-Attribute Decision Support in the Event of a Nuclear Accident
SIMON FRENCH
School of Computer Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9Jb U.K.

ABSTRACT Retrospective studies of nuclear accidents such as those at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl have emphasized the need for preparing structured decision support methodologies for use in any future emergency. This paper discusses the multi-attribute aspects of such decision support, i.e. methods for supporting decisions when there are several conflicting objectives. Considerable progress has been made in application of these methods over the past 4 or 5 years. In particular, the decision-conferencing format
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The varied response to the Chernobyl accident both in and beyond the former Soviet Union led the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) to support a number of projects to further our understanding of the issues raised by such accidents and to build decision support systems (DSSs) and methodologies for use in the event of a future accident. One such is the RODOS Project beal time on-line decisiGn Support system) which is outlined in Section 3. The aim of this system is to support decision making from the moment that an accident threatens, when immediate precautionary countermeasures may be necessary, through to the longer-term decision making which may need to consider stress and public acceptability issues as CCC 1057-9214/96/010039-19 0 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

well as any radiation-related health effects. Later sections of the paper consider the different decision support needed over the life history of an accident and suggest how multi-attribute value and utility theory may help. (French et al. (1995) consider the issue of uncertainty modelling. Related work on forecasting the spread of contamination is reported in companion papers by Smith and French (1993) and Smith et al. (1994).) There are several themes running throughout this paper. Multi-attribute methods are extremely useful in structuring the problems faced by decision makers in formulating

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